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This has been partially offset by a larger contribution from ‘within sector’ productivity gains, reflecting a higher share of workers in more modern parts of the economy by the end of the commodity boom.Labour productivity growth has nonetheless decelerated sharply (Figure 7, Panel B). Nevertheless, Jokowi’s efforts have so far only stabilised what was previously a worsening trajectory, rather than delivered a meaningful turnaround.Indonesia has many opportunities to realise much faster growth — from its dynamic e-commerce industry to its burgeoning market of middle-class consumers. New Order Miracle. It also outlines the policies needed to realise faster growth while preserving stability.Over the past decade, Indonesia has been a consistent performer in an otherwise weak and volatile global economy. Today, it is the world’s seventh-largest economy by purchasing power parity. The current ‘new normal’ of 5 per cent growth a year is solid by comparison internationally but inadequate for Indonesia’s needs. First, this shift only provides a small boost to output because low-end services jobs are only slightly more productive than agriculture. As Figure 4 shows, the ICOR has risen dramatically since 2007, indicating deteriorating efficiency.Cyclical factors are one possible explanation for Indonesia’s diminishing returns on investment, particularly as the ICOR tends to worsen with economic slowdowns. As a result, the low-end services segment acts as the default sector of employment. These are all important accomplishments and particularly so when viewed from the perspective of the considerable political and institutional problems confronting any economic reform in Indonesia. OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Report june 2020 Extract of the report 10 june 2020 The spread of Covid-19 has shaken people’s lives around the globe in an extraordinary way, threatening health, disrupting economic activity, and hurting wellbeing and jobs. If left unaddressed, however, the ‘new normal’ of slower growth will not last and growth will inevitably slow further. The economy, however, continues to be hemmed in by the need to protect stability while its growth model has been unable to deliver the productivity gains required to achieve faster growth within this constraint. Such views, however, get the story backwards. Will more of the same eventually deliver the faster economic growth Indonesia seeks? Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions.Views of the Indonesian economy oscillate between optimism that it is set to become the world’s next economic giant and fear of renewed instability. Doing so would make the trade-off between growth and stability less binding while generating the stronger productivity gains needed to make faster growth more sustainable.The author would like to thank all those who contributed their considerable insights and expertise to make this a better paper, including John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, David Nellor, Hal Hill, Dhruv Sharma, many friends and former colleagues based in Indonesia, and two anonymous referees. Related Content Note: Reserve adequacy in Panel A is the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to gross external financing requirements (defined as the current account deficit plus external debt maturing within one year). However, this unnecessarily conflates two separate problems. A number of high-profile infrastructure projects are being completed, particularly in and around Jakarta.A largely unresponsive economy has therefore prompted many, including Jokowi, to ask deeper questions about the reasons behind Indonesia’s sluggish growth.Investment growth has been notably weaker since the end of the commodity boom. In the most basic sense, this trajectory will not be enough to end widespread economic vulnerability, even by 2030: on current trends, poverty will persist and about half of Indonesian workers will still work in insecure informal sector jobs. As noted earlier, ostensibly there has been solid progress, as demonstrated by the jump in Indonesia’s Ease of Doing Business ranking. Indonesia also risks being directly targeted by Washington — the United States is reviewing Indonesia’s eligibility for preferential market access under its generalised system of preferences and has longstanding concerns about weak intellectual property rights and restrictive investment and services rules.As global protectionism potentially escalates, Indonesia will need to resist such impulses.
This has been partially offset by a larger contribution from ‘within sector’ productivity gains, reflecting a higher share of workers in more modern parts of the economy by the end of the commodity boom.Labour productivity growth has nonetheless decelerated sharply (Figure 7, Panel B). Nevertheless, Jokowi’s efforts have so far only stabilised what was previously a worsening trajectory, rather than delivered a meaningful turnaround.Indonesia has many opportunities to realise much faster growth — from its dynamic e-commerce industry to its burgeoning market of middle-class consumers. New Order Miracle. It also outlines the policies needed to realise faster growth while preserving stability.Over the past decade, Indonesia has been a consistent performer in an otherwise weak and volatile global economy. Today, it is the world’s seventh-largest economy by purchasing power parity. The current ‘new normal’ of 5 per cent growth a year is solid by comparison internationally but inadequate for Indonesia’s needs. First, this shift only provides a small boost to output because low-end services jobs are only slightly more productive than agriculture. As Figure 4 shows, the ICOR has risen dramatically since 2007, indicating deteriorating efficiency.Cyclical factors are one possible explanation for Indonesia’s diminishing returns on investment, particularly as the ICOR tends to worsen with economic slowdowns. As a result, the low-end services segment acts as the default sector of employment. These are all important accomplishments and particularly so when viewed from the perspective of the considerable political and institutional problems confronting any economic reform in Indonesia. OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Report june 2020 Extract of the report 10 june 2020 The spread of Covid-19 has shaken people’s lives around the globe in an extraordinary way, threatening health, disrupting economic activity, and hurting wellbeing and jobs. If left unaddressed, however, the ‘new normal’ of slower growth will not last and growth will inevitably slow further. The economy, however, continues to be hemmed in by the need to protect stability while its growth model has been unable to deliver the productivity gains required to achieve faster growth within this constraint. Such views, however, get the story backwards. Will more of the same eventually deliver the faster economic growth Indonesia seeks? Indonesia has much economic potential but the trade-off between growth and stability continues to bind its growth ambitions.Views of the Indonesian economy oscillate between optimism that it is set to become the world’s next economic giant and fear of renewed instability. Doing so would make the trade-off between growth and stability less binding while generating the stronger productivity gains needed to make faster growth more sustainable.The author would like to thank all those who contributed their considerable insights and expertise to make this a better paper, including John Edwards, Stephen Grenville, David Nellor, Hal Hill, Dhruv Sharma, many friends and former colleagues based in Indonesia, and two anonymous referees. Related Content Note: Reserve adequacy in Panel A is the ratio of foreign exchange reserves to gross external financing requirements (defined as the current account deficit plus external debt maturing within one year). However, this unnecessarily conflates two separate problems. A number of high-profile infrastructure projects are being completed, particularly in and around Jakarta.A largely unresponsive economy has therefore prompted many, including Jokowi, to ask deeper questions about the reasons behind Indonesia’s sluggish growth.Investment growth has been notably weaker since the end of the commodity boom. In the most basic sense, this trajectory will not be enough to end widespread economic vulnerability, even by 2030: on current trends, poverty will persist and about half of Indonesian workers will still work in insecure informal sector jobs. As noted earlier, ostensibly there has been solid progress, as demonstrated by the jump in Indonesia’s Ease of Doing Business ranking. Indonesia also risks being directly targeted by Washington — the United States is reviewing Indonesia’s eligibility for preferential market access under its generalised system of preferences and has longstanding concerns about weak intellectual property rights and restrictive investment and services rules.As global protectionism potentially escalates, Indonesia will need to resist such impulses.